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June 9, 2003, U.S.
Edition
Sideline Arafat, Boost Abbas
Make no mistake, Arafat will try to derail this peace
process. He has absolutely no incentive to see his
prime minister succeed
By
Fareed Zakaria
If nothing else, this week’s Middle East summits will produce a great many photographs of smiling leaders.But to understand how long and hard the road to peace is, consider the photograph that you have not seen.
Last Thursday Ariel Sharon met with the new prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. It was, everyone agreed, a serious and productive meeting, the kind that politicians love to publicize. Except that there is no public photograph of it, nor of their first meeting on May 17. Each side claims that the other didn't want to release pictures of the two men shaking hands or even seated together. You know things are fragile when diplomacy isn't even at the photo-op stage.
Abbas (also known
as Abu Mazen) is a brave leader who has argued that the recourse to terrorism
has been a disaster for the Palestinians. His Finance minister is cleaning
up the cesspool of corruption that is the Palestinian Authority. He has
asked a new security chief to centralize and tame the dozen, often competing,
militias that pass for Palestinian police forces. But it was he who probably
kept the photograph with Sharon out of circulation for fear of looking
like an Israeli stooge. Abbas needs credibility, power and stature. America,
Arab countries and Israel must
help because his boss, Yasir Arafat, will not.
The most important
person who will not be at any of the meetings this week is, of course,
Arafat. And make no mistake, Arafat will try to derail this peace process.
He has absolutely no incentive to see Abu Mazen succeed. He will try to
keep his fingers in the operations of the Palestinian Authority, in particular
in controlling the security forces. The day that Arafat swore Abu Mazen
into office, he set up a new national-security council, with himself as
chairman, controlling all matters related to law and order. He will thwart
the efforts to crack down on terror. He might even encourage some groups
to engage in low-level terror. The message Arafat will try to send the
world is "Abu Mazen is a nice guy but he can't deliver. If you want
to deal with the Palestinians, you have to deal with Arafat."
The only path to peace is one that sidelines Arafat. It would be best
not to do so publicly, which would only brand him as the leader who defies
the Israelis and Americans. Better to ignore him but systematically weaken
his power. The summit will be a good start. Its principal effect will
be to elevate Abu Mazen, who will be seen throughout the world--in the
company of
George W. Bush, Hosni Mubarak, King Abdullah and others--as the leader
of the Palestinian people. If the Arab leaders in particular treat him
with honor and give him material support, it will translate into stature
back home. Much of Arafat’s domestic legitimacy stemmed from the
fact that he represented the Palestinian cause in the world. That’s
why he spent so much time flying to foreign capitals, reviewing honor
guards and embracing presidents and prime ministers. And that is why it
is deeply destructive to the peace process for European leaders to continue
to accord him respect and attention. A senior White House official told
me that the Bush administration has asked every foreign leader who visits
Israel--including the French--to stop meeting with Arafat.
Good Fences Make...
But the administration
and the Israeli government will have to do a lot more to help make Abu
Mazen a true partner. "In order to be able to deliver for the Israelis,
first he has to be able to deliver for the Palestinians," says Martin
Indyk, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Sharon recognizes this
and has begun to withdraw Israeli troops from some Palestinian territories,
and to release prisoners. He should also dismantle some of the roadblocks
and military checkpoints that have become a symbol of the day-to-day misery
of the Palestinians. The more difficult step will be to help the Palestinian
security service rebuild and reform. (The last time Israel did this, Arafat
allowed the guns to be used against Israelis.) But it is inevitable. If
Israel does not want to police the Palestinian territories, it has to
help the Palestinians do it themselves. Arab leaders, for their part,
can stop the flow of money to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Abu Mazen needs guns but he also needs money. His Finance minister, Salam
Fayad, has reformed the Palestinian Authority's finances so that they
are now audited by two international accounting firms. The Israelis have
been impressed enough by the changes that they are releasing Palestinian
tax revenues, long held in escrow, to him. The United States should also
channel its aid to Fayad rather than as is now the case, through the U.S.
Agency for International Development. If he's good enough for the Israelis,
surely he’s good enough for us.
For Abu Mazen to succeed, he must crack down on terror. But to do so he needs broad support among his people. Palestinians need to look up to him as their leader. They must see their lives improving under his rule. They must believe that he can get the Israelis to ease the occupation. If he fails, the perennial survivor, Yasir Arafat, is waiting in the wings, ready for yet another close-up.