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December 30, 2002

The Big Story Everyone Missed
People
who were whipped into a frenzy about the 'Chinese peril' must wonder what
happened. But Washington's shift in attitude is a return to sanity.
By
Fareed Zakaria
This
year has been the first year of the post-9-11 world. So as 2002 winds
up, it's a good time to look back and ask, "Who are the winners and losers
of the new international order?" The losers are obvious--Saddam Hussein,
Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak, Yasir Arafat and, of course, Al Qaeda, which
may not be dead but is on the run. The winners are Israel, India and Russia.
Their struggles with their opponents (the Palestinians, the Kashmiris
and the Chechens,
respectively) have been cast in a more favorable light. Russia, in particular,
has shrewdly used the war on terror to further its integration into the
West.
But in many ways
the country that has benefited most from 9-11 is China. The attacks on
New York and Washington had an enormous, positive effect for it. They
moved the country off Washington's enemies list.
Since the end of
the cold war, a segment of the American right has been searching for a
foe. China, a rapidly growing power ruled by a communist party, fit the
bill nicely. For much of the 1990s, neoconservative commentators and Christian-right
politicians railed against China, arguing against granting it most-favored-nation
status, against allowing it into the World Trade Organization, against
Clinton's presidential visit. They warned that the Hong Kong takeover
was likely to mark the end of that free-market marvel, that China was
likely to invade Taiwan and that passivity toward this threat was either
a product of weakness or treason. Remember Wen Ho Lee?
Then with 9-11 along
came a real enemy, and China was instantly forgotten. There are surely
people in America who, having been whipped into a frenzy about the Chinese
peril, are wondering what happened. But that was Wen and this is now.
Gone is the talk of China as a "strategic competitor." The country is
now an ally in the war against terror. Washington supported its entry
into the WTO, its bid for the 2008 Olympics and even accepted Beijing's
argument that its Xinjiang region harbors Islamic terrorists.
China has taken
advantage of the new climate in Washington to stay focused on its paramount
goal--economic growth. With the exception of Taiwan, China has usually
supported American foreign policy because it wants, more than anything
else, time to develop. In the last year it has had a political transition
(of sorts; Jiang Zemin remains quite powerful) whose chief effect has
been to solidify the ruling consensus in favor of market reforms.
The results over
the last two decades have been staggering. Even if you assume its growth
numbers are exaggerated, it has moved hundreds of millions of people from
poverty into middle-income status. Jeffrey Sachs, the economist who has
advised dozens of developing countries, puts it simply: "China is the
most successful development story in world history."
Its economic policies
have borne remarkable fruit over the last few years. China has become
the most important manufacturing nation in the world. The economic map
of Asia is being redrawn, with China at the center. This is the big story
of the year that got drowned out by the war on terror.
Consider the following:
in 1985, exports from foreign companies in China were composed of only
1 percent of the country's total exports, amounting to $300 million. In
2001 they composed 50 percent of its exports, totaling $133 billion. China
is now the largest provider of Japanese imports. And these goods are not
all cheap plastic toys. Nobuyuki Idei has privately revealed that in two
years his company, Sony, Japan's flagship corporation, will be manufacturing
more goods in China than in its home country. Last August Singapore's
prime minister, Goh Chok Tong, called China's continuing growth "scary,"
and urged his countrymen "to secure a niche for ourselves as China swamps
the world with her higher-quality, but cheaper, products."
But Singapore is
not doomed. In the long run, having a rich China could prove to be a boon
to its neighbors. After all, China exports, but it also imports. It is,
for example, the largest importer of goods from Taiwan, absorbing a quarter
of all Taiwan's exports. That's double what it bought only 10 years ago.
And Japan and China could prove to be highly complementary economies.
But a happy scenario rests on politics--on how China is integrated into
the world. And that depends on Beijing, but more crucially on Washington.
Washington's shift
in attitude toward China marks a return of sanity. The United States cannot
stop China's rise, nor should it. To set itself up against China, before
that country has shown itself to be a foe, is to create a self-fulfilling
prophecy, ensuring a contest between the world's leading power and its
fastest-rising one. This is the stuff of world wars. And we already have
one going.
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